MAG 2025. Authors: Babette van Hazebroek (Universiteit Leiden – School of Law), Paul Nieuwbeerta (Universiteit Leiden – School of Law)
Over recent decades recorded crime has declined sharply across Western societies. Yet the reasons for this decline remain unclear. Does the decline reflect changes in age-related patterns — for instance, that young people today are less likely to offend during adolescence (age effects)? Has society become safer in ways that reduce offending among people of all ages (period effects)? Or are newer cohorts — people born in the same year — fundamentally different because they grew up under different social conditions (cohort effects)? This study uses CBS microdata on criminal convictions between 2001 and 2024 to disentangle these possibilities. By following entire birth cohorts across time, we assess whether the decline in crime reflects developmental changes, societal shifts, or generational differences that persist across the life course. The findings will inform whether policy should maintain current prevention and policing strategies or invest in long-term measures that support future cohorts. They may also help citizens understand how structural social change contributes to safer societies.
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