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In the Netherlands, long-term care policy assumes that older adults rely first on their social network – particularly their children – before turning to formal care. This raises the question of whether having more children delays or reduces formal care use in later life. Although several studies document an important relationship between children and institutionalization, it remains unclear whether this reflects a causal effect of family size or unobserved differences between older individuals with more or fewer children. Moreover, most studies focus on a single transition (e.g., admission to a nursing home) rather than the broader trajectory of care use in the final phase of life. Our project addresses both gaps using population-wide Dutch register data. We examine formal care trajectories in the last five years of life and estimate the causal effect of family size on formal care use, shedding new light on the role of children in shaping end-of-life care.
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