Code red, orange, or maybe yellow? Navigating the storm of precision and uncertainty in the public understanding of severe weather warnings

14 January 2025

The KNMI warns the Netherlands in case of extreme weather, such as a heavy storm, so that we can take precautions. These warnings consist of colour codes, such as “code red” for a severe storm that will cause many problems. These codes are now issued per province. That makes the map simple but is also quite strange because the weather does not adhere to provincial borders. Therefore, we are investigating whether maps with local forecasts are also well understood by residents of the Netherlands. Additionally, we will study whether more information can be provided about the uncertainty in the weather warnings. We all know that the weather is hard to predict, so sometimes it is worse than KNMI expected, or not as bad as they thought. If the KNMI shares these kinds of uncertainties with us, will that cause less indignation in society if the weather is different than predicted?

Photo by Jose Antonio Gallego Vázquez on Unsplash